Mathematical modelling research

NCIRS collaborates with members of the infectious diseases research group in the school of public health and community medicine at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) to modelling studies on vaccine preventable diseases. The UNSW group has particular expertise in modelling of vaccine preventable diseases, including evaluations of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new vaccines, modifications to existing vaccination schedules and progress towards elimination for diseases such as measles and rubella. They also have experience in modelling the effect of control strategies for pandemic influenza and tuberculosis (Dr Wood, Prof MacIntyre) and sexually transmitted infections (Dr Gao) as well as more general health economic evaluations (Dr Newall).

Currently the group is undertaking projects using serosurveillance data to model rubella epidemiology in Australia and estimate coverage with MMR vaccine for age-groups not covered on the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register. Recently completed projects include analysis of immunity to measles, mumps and rubella in Australian, the impact on immunity of the Meningococcal C vaccination campaign in Australia. In 2009 we also completed projects analysing the future incidence of mumps in Australia and assessing outbreak risk for measles by Division of General Practice.

General direction on projects is overseen by Prof Peter McIntyre of NCIRS and Prof Raina MacIntyre of UNSW, while Dr Wood oversees the modelling analysis.

Current members of the modelling research group:

UNSW based

Prof Raina MacIntyre
Dr James Wood
Dr Zhanhai Gao
Dr Anthony Newall

NCIRS based

Prof Peter McIntyre
Mr Robert Menzies

Contact email: James.Wood@unsw.edu.au


Current Projects

Modelling the epidemiology of rubella in Australia: This project is using models to examine the effect of past and current vaccination programs on rubella incidence in Australia. Expected outcomes include the projected incidence of Rubella and Congenital Rubella Syndrome into the future and an assessment of Australia’s elimination status with respect to rubella.
Led by Dr Zhanhai Gao

Estimates of vaccine coverage and seroconversion rates for combination vaccines: This project aims to use the 2007 national serosurvey collection to estimate rates of vaccination and seroconversion for measles, mumps and rubella.
Led by Dr James Wood (lead up work by Dr David Philp)


Completed Projects

Review of published models of the impact of pertussis vaccination
Led by Dr Jodie McVernon (University of Melbourne)

Seroprevalence of antibodies to measles, mumps and rubella in Australia
Led by Dr James Wood, Dr David Philp and Dr Zhanhai Gao

Seroepidemiology and notifications of rubella in Australia
Led by Mr Ning Song (MBBS student UNSW)

Population-based seroprevalence of meningococcal C capsular antibody after the introduction of conjugate vaccine, in Australia
Led by Ms Fatma Saleh (MPH student UNSW)

Predictions of potential for measles outbreaks by division of general practice (GP) in Australia
Led by Dr James Wood

Rising Mumps Notifications in Australia: Is a Third MMR Dose Required to Prevent Large Epidemics?
Led by Dr David Philp

Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia (doi:10.1017/S0950268809990860)
Led by Dr Zhanhai Gao

Potential impacts of schedule changes, waning immunity and vaccine uptake on measles elimination in Australia (doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.09.095)
Led by Dr James Wood